As tensions soar between Iran, Israel, and the United States, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emerged at the forefront of a rapidly intensifying geopolitical crisis. On June 18, 2025, Khamenei issued defiant warnings to both Israel and the U.S., following a deadly round of Israeli airstrikes and provocative comments from U.S. President Donald Trump. Here’s what we know so far.

Khamenei’s Fierce Retaliation Warning

In a nationally televised speech and a series of posts on X, Ayatollah Khamenei declared, “The battle begins,” vowing a fierce response to recent Israeli airstrikes that struck Tehran and Karaj. These strikes, part of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, killed multiple senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, including Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Mohammad Kazemi.

Khamenei labeled Israel’s actions a “grave miscalculation,” warning of “no mercy” and promising “harsh punishment” for the “terrorist Zionist regime.”

The Supreme Leader also responded to Trump’s June 17 comments on social media, in which the U.S. president called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and suggested Khamenei was an “easy target.” Khamenei warned that any U.S. involvement would trigger “irreparable damage” and potentially spark a full-scale regional war.

Isolation and Power Shift in Tehran

At 86 years old, Ayatollah Khamenei is facing an unprecedented leadership crisis. The deaths of his closest military advisors have significantly weakened his command structure. Sources inside Iran suggest that Khamenei has begun transferring emergency powers to the Supreme Council of the Iranian Military, signaling a potentially broader strategic shift.

Though unconfirmed, Israeli sources have speculated that Khamenei is experiencing a “difficult mental state” due to the rapid unraveling of his inner circle. Online discourse has been rife with speculation, but official Iranian channels have not confirmed these reports.

Overview of the Israel-Iran Conflict

Now in its sixth day, the Israel-Iran conflict began on June 13, 2025, with Israel launching preemptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear installations. Iran responded with ballistic and hypersonic missile attacks on Israeli cities including Tel Aviv and Bat Yam. No Israeli casualties were reported, but the risk of escalation remains high.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have not ruled out directly targeting Khamenei. Katz even referenced Saddam Hussein, suggesting a similar fate could await Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Khamenei, in one of his most provocative X posts, wrote in Hebrew: “We will not be merciful toward the Zionists,” and shared an image referencing the historical Battle of Khaybar, symbolically invoking Islamic conquest.

U.S. Military Moves and Global Fallout

The United States has reinforced its military presence in the Middle East, deploying an aircraft carrier group to the region in support of Israel. President Trump continues to align with Netanyahu’s hardline stance, dismissing intelligence reports that downplay the immediacy of Iran’s nuclear threat.

In response, Khamenei warned that U.S. intervention could “ignite a regional explosion,” cautioning that Iran’s military—and its allies across the region—are on high alert.

The crisis has sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing crude oil futures up by 4.3%, to $75 per barrel, as traders brace for potential disruptions to oil flow in the Persian Gulf.

Uncertainty Surrounds Khamenei’s Future

Speculation over Khamenei’s hold on power is growing. Prediction platforms such as Polymarket indicate a 61% probability that he could be removed from power—via death, coup, or other causes—by the end of 2025. The combination of military losses, political pressure, and an aging leadership structure makes Iran’s internal situation increasingly volatile.

What’s Next for Iran and the Region?

As the conflict evolves, key questions remain:

• Will Iran strike back more aggressively?
• Could the U.S. be drawn directly into a military confrontation?
• Can regional powers or international organizations mediate to prevent full-scale war?

For now, Ayatollah Khamenei remains defiant, but his leadership is under immense pressure. The coming days will likely shape not only Iran’s trajectory but the stability of the entire Middle East.

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